Editorial Review: Product Description
a groundbreaking look at trading the markets with one of the most important forecasting tools available . . . "If you've ever wondered about the validity of seasonals or how to trade them, buy this book now!" ?Glen Larson, Genesis Data Services "Jake does it again. This time his extensive research really leaps out as he makes seasonal trading easy to understand and a very useful tool for any commodity trader." ?Jeffrey H. Fox, Fox Investments. Is there a "holy grail" of price prediction? Traders have long been in pursuit of one, and while a handful of strategies, techniques, and methodologies have proven noteworthy, the search continues for the ultimate forecasting instrument ?if one does indeed exist. The theory and methods of seasonality may well prove to be a step in the right direction to this goal. In this unique new book, a leading seasonal trading analyst examines seasonality in-depth, elucidating the concise principles, numerous advantages, and enormous potential that make it one of the most important ?and effective ?methods currently available for targeting futures price trends. Over the years, considerable attention has been paid to the effects of interest rates, money supply, earnings, inflation, and other key factors on stock and commodity prices. Yet, the immense impact of seasonal price tendencies has been either grossly underestimated or completely ignored. Often overlooked, but equally significant, seasonality is based on the assumption that seasonal influences cause biases in the movement of market prices. Among its many advantages, seasonality allows the trader to formulate objective decisions founded on a logical, verifiable, and operational methodology, creating a backdrop of probable market trends in most time frames and in most markets, and providing historically valid input for use as an adjunct to other analytical methods and timing indicators. The essence of seasonality is found in its lengthy history and statistically testable methodologies. However, seasonal correlations are not 100 percent foolproof. Using seasonal data to time the market involves an unavoidable degree of subjectivity ?unless you have a firm grasp of seasonal timing concepts and techniques. Now, in the first resource devoted exclusively to the subject, Jake Bernstein gives you the foundation necessary to implement this powerful tool effectively and with confidence. Balancing theory and practice, Bernstein provides a thorough, real-world understanding of seasonal timing concepts and techniques. Along with results of his own extensive research, he integrates the work of numerous market analysts, such as W. D. Gann, Art Merrill, Burton Pugh, Samuel Benner, and Yale Hirsch, among others, to create a pragmatic and highly functional analytical framework. With his accessible, comprehensive coverage of significant concepts such as seasonal spread relationships, key dates, and cash tendencies, you'll be able to discern seasonal patterns in monthly and daily cash and futures data. Once the basics are firmly in place, Bernstein leads you step by step through the essential process of formulating a seasonal trading program that incorporates important timing strategies and risk management tools. An ideal overview for any trader, investor, or analyst, this lucidly written and clearly organized resource emphasizes the validity and significance of seasonality. Jake Bernstein has compiled a comprehensive guide to the effective use of seasonal concepts and methods in the futures markets. This is a major work that belongs on the shelves of all serious traders.
|
Reviews:
Average Customer Review: 
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:
Summary: Seasonal trading doesn't work like it used to
Date: 2003-03-06 -
Comment: Most seasonal trading is already factored into the price, right before the season starts. Something like 2 out of 10 seasonal trades work nowadays. Technical Analysis has eliminated many of the seasonal signals. In fact it is prohibited by the National Futures Association for brokers to even discuss or promote on the basis of seasonal trading. That says a lot to me. In the past 11 years I have been a futures broker, futures investor, and author of several futures books and I tell all of my clients not to rely on seasonal trades. And if they do follow seasonal trades use tight stops for when the market goes against you.
27 of 27 people found the following review helpful:
Summary: Decent theory - Not alot of practical trading strategies
Date: 2000-05-04 - 
Comment: I was expecting alot more from someone referred to as the foremost authority on seasonality in the futures markets. While I give Jake alot of credit for bringing greater visibility to seasonal trading strategies through his earlier research from the late 70s on, this book was somewhat of a disappointment. My first concern is that a large portion of his data modeling is based off of cash market data. While this often allows one a much greater data pool to tap which in turn can assist in lending statistical significance to apparent patterns, I have to question the validity of this approach since as most traders know, futures prices often diverge significantly from those of the cash market. There are no clear trading rules elucidated for particular seasonals, and individual contract months are not well touched on. In addition, while technical filters are mentioned, there is no clear integration with seasonals. For anyone actually interested in trading seasonals with very clear rules spelled out with specific seasonals based on individual contract months, I would highly recommend John Momsen's "UltraReliable Seasonal Trades." While I haven't traded Momsen's methods long enough to draw a 100% conclusion, I've already made significant profits with his systems. This text didn't add enough workable knowledge to warrant the price IMHO. It does however provide some decent info on performing your own seasonal research by data mining...
5 of 10 people found the following review helpful:
Summary: Good for pork bellies but very little on stocks
Date: 1999-09-11 -
Comment: Mostly concerned with the commodities and futures markets. Interesting, lots of charts and tables, but the only information on stocks is a table on page 87 showing that from Jan 1897 to Dec 1983 the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a gain 68.1% of the time the day before an important holiday and 52.2% of the time the day after. Good to know. It was something I had already recognized, but knowing that the day before is significantly better than the day after is worth while. Also Monday is the worse day of the week for stock prices. There's even a book entitled Don't Sell Stocks on Monday(1986) by Yale Hirsch.
6 of 11 people found the following review helpful:
Summary: A great book on how to combine seasonality and timing.
Date: 1998-12-11 - 
Comment: Jake Bernstein is the foremost authority on seasonality and this book clearly demonstrates the power of this approach. It is also an easy read for the beginning trader.
|
Useful Links:
