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Book: The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel :: Robert Kiyosaki|Books :: Book
Date: Thursday, 20 November, 2008 :: 22:17
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The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel
List Price: USD $16.99
from USD $3.87
Product Group: book
Manufacturer: Business Plus
Studio: Business Plus
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Editorial Review: Product Description
In The Oil Factor, Stephen Leeb accurately predicted the current oil shortage and showed how savvy investors could profit. But now the world is facing an energy crisis of unprecedented scope, and the recent surge in oil prices is only the tip of the iceberg. With meticulous research and analysis, Leeb shows that due to strong competition from India and China for the world?s oil reserves, prices could soon top an astounding $200 a barrel, bringing an economic collapse that most countries and investors are ill-prepared for. Now in this groundbreaking book, Leeb shows how this crisis will affect you, but how savvy investing can turn these dire times into financial gain.
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Reviews:
Average Customer Review: 
Summary: Some good advice, but need more analysis
Date: 2008-11-18 - 
Comment: I read this book based on a recommendation by someone who was bullish in investing in Gold. The financial crisis (2008) has also catapulted the author to a series of media interviews. As others have already observed, the actual investment advice came only in the last three chapters. Much of the book devoted to building up the author's credence in analysing past periods of high inflation and volatile investment environment in the 1970s. In light of the current financial crisis, some of the author's observation makes interesting reading.
Here are some of the them,
"Most authorities continue to reassure the public that today's soaring energy prices are temporary, that oil reserves are virtually limitless."
"Most people don't realise how close the dot-com crash came to destroying the economy, the society, and the very fabric of our civilization came close to disintegrating."
"... our leaders did the right thing and saved us from disaster by the rapid response from the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates to nearly zero."
And these are just the first 10 pages from the book. Leeb made a big thing about not falling into "group think" and he was the lone voice in spotting the finite nature of oil reserves. The problem is, there is no evidence that national leaders or company CEOs think oil is limitless. That is a strange concept. To put things in perspective, the dot-com crash induced recession lasted only around 6 months and mostly limited to the US. The general market and the rest of the world escape relatively unscathed. The Feds' interest rates policy directly linked to the sub-prime crisis is even harder to defend. Interestingly, the author think because real estate was a sound investment in the 1970s, and think it will remain sound for some time.
On the different in investment strategy during a volatile market, the author wrote, "a far more rewarding strategy in the 1970s was to sell shares at the market tops and buy them again at the start of the next rally." Oh, now I get it .... buy low and sell high. ;-)
I am also uncomfortable with some of the scientific assertions in support of alternative energy investment. Leeb doesn't think nuclear energy has a future because nuclear waste management is a problem. Ignoring France is 75% nuclear powered, and waste management has been effectively managed for the past decades. Wind energy is the preferred solution to the energy crisis by the author. However, no base-loaded electricity requirement was mentioned. Wind energy can not provide base-loaded electricity. For readers interested in different energy alternatives, I recommend Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak by Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes.
Gold investment actually makes a lot of sense. However, the rise and fall of gold price goes beyond the law of Supply and Demand. The strength of the US dollars used in paying for commodity, including oil and gold. And the influence of hedge funds. Even accepting the soundness of gold investment as a long term strategy, the lack of inclusion of any debate of the US dollars and hedge funds diminishes any serious recommendation.
Summary: Maybe or Not
Date: 2008-10-02 -
Comment: I wish he saw the credit market collapse and subsequent bailout. I'm off topic, i know, sorry. Regarding oil, hind sight is 20-20. After reading the book i in summer '07 i went off to my CFA and got this take: oil prices are being fueled by speculators, in inflation adjusted numbers it's still less (even at $100 plus) then the spikes in the early 80's, Not to worry the price will come done. Now with oil at 90 plus (10/08), my CFA has proven correct at least in the short term.
The book takes good sources, references, common sense, and some marketing license with the title and makes a good case. The author still sounds shrill. During the period of $140 plus, i went to the authors site expecting to get the i told you so and the get ready here it comes and here's what you can do...but NOTHING! So much for committment.
Don't get me wrong, if nothing he has heightened my senses and i will keep a diligent eye towards the oil industry, international economies, government action and inaction. I think it has elevated everyones thinking and the should be the sole reason for reading this book.
Summary: Great book, wish I read it earlier.
Date: 2008-09-11 - 
Comment: This book has a lot of great info, particularly about economy and aspects of history that may be misunderstood, or may have been completely misrepresented to us. The book is also a relatively easy read. I read it about a year ago, which was actually a little late, but even now it is still a worthwhile investment.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
Summary: skip this one
Date: 2008-09-06 -
Comment: The investment advice is based on the assumption that the "coming economic collapse" will be like the recession in the 1970s. Pretty unlikely, given that the causes are totally different. He just wants us to buy gold - who needs his book to hear this?
This is a simplistic book with little to recommend it.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:
Summary: Speculations about the Coming Economic Collapse
Date: 2008-08-29 -
Comment: At the end of the book Leeb gives some solid tips for picking stocks
that will benefit from higher oil prices and inflation. His general
thesis that the next decade could mirror and exceed the trends of the 1970's does seem compelling. Unfortunately I have some serious concerns about the soundness of the research that he uses to predict that an imminent and prolonged oil shock is on the horizon.
In general he seems to draw from his experience as a PhD psychologist
more than from either his math or economics background. He repeatedly
makes the assertion that "group think" is responsible for the experts
ignoring the fact that we are reaching a peak in oil production and
that demand will far outstrip supply in the near term. This assertion
is the core of his thesis. If you allow that there exist experts that
depend on accurate analysis of oil reserves and demand that do not
suffer from "group think" then the book amounts to little more then a
speculative stock picking book. I also noticed that most of the
references he makes in the book are to Scientific American articles or
popular non-fiction books such as Jared Diamond's "Collapse". His
research does not appear to be any deeper than what any layperson
could cobble together from the books and magazines they normally read.
I believe in the end that speculative stock picks is all this book has
to offer. It is a stock picking book by a professional stock picker,
who has accurately identified trends in the past, and has found a new
concern among investors and capitalized on it. His previous
prediction about the collapse of technology shocks shows he has good
timing, but good timing does not guarantee that everything he believes
will come to pass in the time frame he predicts. If speculating on
the market is what you want to do, then his book is as good as any on
the topic. It does not appear to offer principled investment advice
based new research or insights though.
I took notes, see below, on the points that led me to my conclusion.
Perhaps you'll want to review these sections to see if you also find
them troubling.
Pg 66-68 - Author shows his support of Keynsesian economics. He
argues for government spending is a preferable response to inflation
then balanced budgets. He never discusses the place that increased
productivity plays in decreasing inflation. If "Chindia" does become
modernized in the next ten years, as he asserts, won't that increased
productivity have a negative impact on inflation?
He advocates a get rich quick scheme is better then a get rich slow
system offered by modern portfolio management. The saying, "you can't
cheat an honest man" comes to mind when I read that.
Pg 82 - Leeb writes: "The government wll likely resist conservation
for fear of the economic consequences." This does not appear to ring
true to me.
Aren't poor nations likely to conserve even more then the U.S.A.? He
says Chindia must grow - but can they afford to grow if oil becomes
expensive?
He claims US Natural Gas has peaked, but I thought there were large
untapped gas deposits in the US.
Pg 86 - Leeb writes: "Safe to assume Saudi own energy consumption will
again grow by about 10% a year" and will consume 1/2 of new
production. This does not ring true to me. Seems like more complex
story here.
Pg 96 - "no new energy supplies waiting to come online." But what
about Alaska? If things get tough, we have the Arctic National
Wildlife area right?
"Government debt at record highs ($7.8 trillian)" BUT - as an
inflation adjusted percent of GDP how big is our debt? He doesn't
say. Using absolute values like this is misleading.
Pg 99-100 - Leeb down plays downside of letting inflation rise to
devaluded the dollar. Focus on inflation hurting returns, but not
cost to business planning. Fed may not allow inflation for that
reason.
Pg 112 - Leeb claims best strategy in the 70's is essentially to buy
at start of a rally and sell at top of a rally. Nothing more then buy
low, sell high. Not a great insight and no plan for the future.
Would be worth reading "The Prize" by Yeagin. This is written by a
true oil industry insider.
Pg 141 - Leeb writes - "Only massive effort by Federal Government will
be able to solve the energy crisis". Here he shows his statist bias.
How about some trust in the power of capitalism?
Pg 149 - claims oil/gasoline price is subsidized by the US Government.
He sites tax breaks, but this does not ring true to me. It seems
like the government taxes gas and oil more then it creates special
targeted subsides.
Pg 136 - Claims hydrogen from wind is a viable technology. This
ignores massive problems with hydrogen storage and inefficiency of
straight electrolysis. Basic physics is completely ignored.
Pg 173 - According to chart, gold peaked for a very short period
around 1978/79, then has averaged approx $350 since. 1975 deregulated
gold which accounts for the big increase and he uses that short peak
when he describes the profit made from gold. Using such precise stock
timing to make his point strikes me as dishonest.
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